Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2026 Annual Conference

August 4 - 7, 2026, The Fields Institute

Location: Fields Institute, Room 230

Extended Conference Webpage: https://bit.ly/efi2026

Description

The Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) is an international grassroots consortium aimed at building and supporting an interdisciplinary community of practice around near-term (daily to decadal) ecological forecasts. Hosted by the Canadian Chapter of EFI, the EFI2026 Conference will assemble local, regional, national, and global leaders from the mathematical sciences, environmental sciences, epidemiology, data sciences, one health, and related disciplines to advance the state of ecological forecasting. Individuals are invited from academia, government agencies, industry, and the non-profit sectors to come together in person to share cutting-edge research and applications in ecological forecasting broadly. The conference will explore key research themes such as mathematical and statistical techniques for quantifying and partitioning uncertainty, forecasting across spatio-temporal scales, designing forecasts that inform real-world decisions, and effective teaching for ecological forecasting.

Keynote Speakers

Dr. James Clark, Nicholas School of the Environment, Dep. of Statistical Science, Duke University
Dr. Caroline Colijn, Canada Research Chair, Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University

Main Objectives

The main objective of the EFI2026 conference is to continue to grow the global Ecological Forecasting Initiative community, as well as elevate the visibility of the Canadian EFI and connections within Canada by catalyzing new initiatives, outputs, and partnerships. Cutting-edge ecological research will be shared through keynote addresses, short research presentations, poster sessions, working groups, workshops, and networking opportunities.

Additional Details

Key Dates (subject to change if needed):

December 8, 2025: Abstract, travel scholarships, and visa request submissions open. Determine if you need a visa to enter Canada using the following tool from Immigration Canada: https://www.ircc.canada.ca/english/visit/visas.asp
January 23, 2026: Proposals for workshops (https://bit.ly/efi2026-workshops) and working groups (https://bit.ly/efi2026-workinggroups) close
March 2, 2026: Registration opens
April 15, 2026: Abstract and travel scholarship applications close
May 1, 2026: Accepted contributions and travel scholarships announced
May 29, 2026: Early bird registration closes
July 1, 2026: Full registration closes

Important Links

Extended Conference Webpage: https://bit.ly/efi2026
Abstracts for talks and poster presentations to take place on August 5-7 can be submitted at: https://survey.alchemer.com/s3/8592450/EFI-2026-Abstract
Proposals for Working Group activities that will take place on August 4 can be submitted at: https://bit.ly/efi2026-workinggroups
Proposals for Workshops that will take place on August 5-7 can be submitted at: https://bit.ly/efi2026-workshops
Travel scholarship applications can be submitted at: https://bit.ly/efi2026-travel-scholarship
Additional details, a handbook with travel recommendations, and updates are available at: https://bit.ly/efi2026

Sponsoring Partners

	Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada
	Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto
	Ocean Tracking Network, Dalhousie University
	Centre for Ecosystem Management, University of Guelph
	One Health Institute, University of Guelph
	ApexRMS
	Ecological Forecasting Initiative

Schedule

Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
08:45 to 09:15	Doors Open & Check-In
09:15 to 09:45	Welcome & Kick-Off
09:45 to 10:45	Working Group Morning Session
10:45 to 11:00	Coffee Break
11:00 to 12:30	Working Group Morning Session (continued)
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch & Networking
13:30 to 15:15	Working Group Afternoon Session
15:15 to 15:30	Coffee Break
15:30 to 17:00	Working Group Afternoon Session (continued)
18:00 to 20:00	Group Dinner Options at Kensington Market or Chinatown (self paid) - Meet at Fields at 6:00 PM

Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
08:45 to 09:10	Doors Open, Check-In, & Poster Setup
09:10 to 09:30	Welcome & Kick-Off
09:25 to 10:45	Oral Presentations Session 1: Ecological Forecasting in Ocean Systems
09:30 to 09:45	The Ocean Tracking Network: Beyond Animal Movement Data Caitlin Bate, Ocean Tracking Network
09:45 to 10:00	Forecasting non-breeding distributions of thick-billed murre populations to inform conservation of Atlantic populations Allison Patterson, Environment and Climate Change Canada
10:00 to 10:15	Forecasts reveal divergent seasonal and regional responses of forage fish in a changing Northwest Atlantic Ocean Hunter Milles, San Diego State University
10:15 to 10:30	Phenological shifts of marine top predators in a rapidly changing ocean region Jerald McDermott, San Diego State University
10:30 to 10:45	Using interpretable AI to forecast species distributions and inform marine spatial planning Nima Farchadi, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
10:45 to 11:00	Coffee Break
10:55 to 12:30	Oral Presentations Session 2: Forecasting in One Health & Emerging Disease Systems
11:00 to 11:15	Forecasting disease occurrence by 2050 following urban densification, habitat connectivity loss, and climate change Tiziana A. Gelmi Candusso, Lincoln Park Zoo
11:15 to 11:30	Meteorological conditions predict questing tick densities across the eastern United States Emily Beasley, Boston University
11:30 to 11:45	Toward comparative forecasting of zoonotic arbovirus systems Lindsay Campbell, University of Florida
11:45 to 12:00	From importation to transmission: Modelling the potential for autochthonous dengue virus transmission in Canada via imported travellers Keana Shahin, University of Guelph
12:00 to 12:15	Attractor and transient periodicities are invariant to seasonal transmission patterns in epidemic models Emma Coates, McMaster University
12:15 to 12:30	Another Rain Song: Evaluating the performance of zero-shot forecasting using a foundational AI model as a surveillance tool for the emerging One Health issue of Legionellosis in Ontario, 2013-2024 Olaf Berke, University of Guelph
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch & Early/Late Career Networking
13:30 to 14:30	[Keynote] Pandemic decision-making with modelling: the models and the data needs? Caroline Colijn, Canada Research Chair, Department of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University
14:30 to 15:15	1-Minute Poster Pitches
15:15 to 15:30	Coffee Break
15:30 to 17:00	Poster Session
17:00 to 18:30	Welcome Reception

Thursday, August 6th, 2026
08:45 to 09:30	Doors Open & Check-In
09:25 to 10:45	Oral Presentations Session 3: Decision & Communication
09:30 to 09:45	Exploring hypothetical-yet-plausible pandemic pathogens: a dual-model forecasting framework Irena Papst, Public Health Agency of Canada
09:45 to 10:00	Forecasting invasive insect spread and management outcomes for improved decision-making Alessandro Filazzola, ApexRMS
10:00 to 10:15	An Update on American Meteorological Society Ecological Forecasting Committee Activities – the Need for an Interdisciplinary Perspective. Marc Cotnoir
10:15 to 10:30	Quantifying the cost of cultural bias in conservation decision making Abby Keller, University of California, Berkeley
10:30 to 10:45	Spatial Resolution Shapes Forecast Utility for Decision-making Chris Jones, North Carolina State University
10:45 to 11:00	Coffee Break
10:55 to 12:30	Oral Presentations Session 4: Spatiotemporal Model Evaluation
11:00 to 11:15	Guidance and tools for quantitative and qualitative context-specific evaluations of species distribution models Josie Hughes, Environment and Climate Change Canada
11:15 to 11:30	How much is enough? Optimizing Sampling thresholds for reliable ecological forecasts Vihanga Gunadasa, Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN)
11:30 to 11:45	Where Climate Change and Sampling Bias Collide: Challenges of Predicting and Validating Biodiversity Change in Canada Noah Wightman, McGill University
11:45 to 12:00	When data deficiencies matter: a tale of forecasting two ecotypes of caribou Julie Turner, Biodiversity Pathways
12:00 to 12:15	Forecasting Mountain Pine Beetle Infestations with Multi-Paradigm Models Kévan Rastello, University of Victoria
12:15 to 12:30	Predictive validation improves forecast quality: re‐finding the best models for caribou movement Eliot McIntire, Natural Resources Canada
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch, Networking, & Spatiotemporal Discussion
13:30 to 14:30	[Keynote] Response velocity evaluates vulnerability through climate sensitivity combined with rates of climate change: applications to North American and European forests James S. Clark, Nicholas School of the Environment, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University
14:30 to 15:15	EFI Community Updates
15:15 to 15:30	Coffee Break
15:30 to 17:00	Workshop Session 1
17:30 to 20:30	Social Dinner at Snakes & Lattes

Friday, August 7th, 2026
08:45 to 09:30	Doors Open & Check-In
09:25 to 10:45	Oral Presentations Session 5: From Continental to Local Terrestrial Forecasts
09:30 to 09:45	From national ecological monitoring to local forecasts and adaptive management Christian Damgaard, Aarhus University
09:45 to 10:00	When Behavior Matters: Linking Individual Behavior to Ecosystem Dynamics Shohel Ahmed, University of Alberta
10:00 to 10:15	Will climate change boost boreal forest's primary productivity? Continental-scale process-based forecasts for the Canadian boreal forest Dominique Caron, Natural Resources Canada
10:15 to 10:30	Scalable Parameter Calibration for Land Surface Models Using Ensemble Kalman Inversion Meng Lai, Boston University
10:30 to 10:45	Forecasting dryland resilience via resource-driven dung beetle facilitation Guillermo Gómez Peña, Doñana Biological Station (EBD-CSIC)
10:45 to 11:00	Coffee Break
11:00 to 12:30	Workshop Session 2
12:30 to 13:30	Lunch & Networking
13:25 to 14:30	Oral Presentations Session 6: Uncertainty & Method
13:30 to 13:45	A guided tour through the cyberinfrastructure that supports the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge Quinn Thomas, Virginia Tech
13:45 to 14:00	Evaluation of the skill of probabilistic seasonal forecasts in predicting droughts with the hydrologic model ParFlow/CLM over central Europe Alexandre Belleflamme, Research Centre Jülich
14:00 to 14:15	Evolution of the National Weather Service Modeling Suite Marc Cotnoir
14:15 to 14:30	Conformal Prediction quantifies the current and future uncertainty of Species Distribution Models Timothée Poisot, Université de Montréal
14:30 to 15:15	CEFI & EFI Future Connections & Conference Wrap-Up
15:15 to 15:30	Coffee Break
15:30 to 17:30	Optional Boat Cruise Social Activity (self paid)