Analysis of serological surveys of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the United States to estimate parameters needed for transmission modeling and to evaluate and improve the accuracy of predictions
Using observations from nationwide seroprevalence studies, we have described proportions seropositive as a function of age and time during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Slices through this surface at arbitrary times provide initial and target conditions for simulation modeling. They also provide the wherewithal for calculating age-specific forces of infection, attack rates, and – together with contact rates and a mixing matrix from the literature – probabilities of infection on contact between susceptible and infectious people. Values for most other transmission model parameters can be found by carefully reviewing the literature or consulting subject-matter experts. The estimated parameters are used in a metapopulation model for COVID-19 to identify vaccination strategies.