To prevent exponential spread of Covid-19, governments restrict economic activity. We model these restrictions as shocks to productivity by sector, and trace through the indirect effects of these shocks in equilibrium using techniques from production network economics. We use well-calibrated estimates of productivity shocks in March 2020 to answer two related questions. First, as society reopens, or if future lockdowns are needed, which sectors are most critical to open on economic grounds? Second, given the demographics and wage distribution across sectors, which sectors are most critical even when we also account for the heterogeneous long-term health consequences of income loss?

Co-authors: L. Rosella, V. Goel, and E. Buajitti.

Kevin A. Bryan is an assistant professor of strategic management at the University of Toronto Rotman School of Management, and Lab Economist at the Creative Destruction Lab. He is an applied game theorist who primarily studied innovation and entrepreneurship policy, antitrust, and knowledge diffusion. He holds a PhD in Economics and Strategy from Northwestern University.

For more information on this research please visit http://www.kevinbryanecon.com, and follow Dr Bryan's work on his theoretical economics weblog at http://afinetheorem.wordpress.com.

For further relevant research please see del Rio-Chanona et al, 'Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective', https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/supply-and-demand-shocks-..., and Baqaee et al 'Policies for a Second Wave' https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/policies-for-a-second-wave/, and Dingel and Neiman, 'How Many Jobs Can Be Done at Home?' https://www.nber.org/papers/w26948r .