In recent years, it became clear that super-spreader events play an important role, particularly in the spread of airborne infection. We investigate a novel model for super-spreader events, not based on the contact structure but on a random contact rate: Many individuals become infected synchronously in single contact events. We use the branching-process approach for contact tracing to analyze the impact of super-spreader events on the effect of contact tracing. Roughly speaking, we find that contact tracing is more efficient in the presence of super-spreaders if the fraction of symptomatics is small, the tracing probability is high, or the latency period is distinctively larger than the incubation period. In other cases, the effect of contact tracing can be decreased by super-spreaders. Numerical analysis with parameters suited for SARS-CoV-2 indicates that super-spreaders do not decrease the effect of contact tracing crucially in case of that infection.

Co-author: V. Hösel, TU Munic, Germany

Johannes Müller’s research interest lies in the interface of mathematics and life sciences. He studied in Karlsruhe and Tübingen, where he completed his habilitation in 2001. After stays in Utrecht and Cologne, he became head of a research group at the Institute for Biomathematics and Biometry at the Helmholtz Center, Munich. He has been appointed as a professor at the Technische Universität München (2004).

The main working areas of Johannes Müller are dynamical systems and stochastic processes with applications in life sciences. The main applications are epidemiology with an emphasis on optimization of vaccination and contact tracing, cell regulatory networks with an emphasis on quorum sensing, and population genetics, particularly concerning the effect of seedbanks.

Johannes Müller received the Erwin Schrödinger Prize in 2007 together with an interdisciplinary research group for their work on quorum sensing.

References:

J. Müller, M. Kretzschmar, and K. Dietz. 'Contact tracing in deterministic and stochastic models'. Math. Biosc., 164:39-64, 2000. http://homepages.warwick.ac.uk/~masfz/Pop_Dyn/PAPERS/Muller2000.pdf

J. Müller, Mirjam Kretzschmar, 'Contact Tracing – Old Models and New Challenges (Review paper)', Infectious Disease Modelling, 6 (2021), 222-231, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720301093

J. Müller, V. Hösel, 'Contact Tracing & Super-Spreaders in the Branching-Process Model' https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.04942.pdf

Tina R Pollmann, et al. The impact of digital contact tracing on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic - a comprehensive modelling study 2020, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/09/14/2020.09.13.2019...