Counting conjugacy classes of fully irreducibles: double exponential growth
A 2011 result of Eskin and Mirzakhani shows that for a closed hyperbolic surface S of genus g≥2, the number N(L) of closed Teichmüller geodesics of length ≤L in the moduli space of S grows as ehL/(hL) where h=6g−6. The number N(L) is also equal to the number of conjugacy classes of pseudo-Anosov elements ϕ∈MCG(S) with logλ(ϕ)≤L, where λ(ϕ) is the "dilatation" or "stretch factor" of ϕ. We consider an analogous problem in the Out(Fr) setting for the number Nr(L) of Out(Fr) conjugacy classes of fully irreducible elements ϕ∈Out(Fr) with logλ(ϕ)≤L. We prove, for r≥3, that Nr(L) grows doubly exponentially in L as L→∞, in terms of both lower and upper bounds. These bounds reveal behavior not present in classic hyperbolic dynamical systems. The talk is based on a joint paper with Catherine Pfaff.