Fangcang shelter hospitals and control of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Wuhan
Among the 50,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections in Wuhan, more than 5% were healthcare personnel, healthcare workers and hospital bed availability were two crucial factors in battling the COVID-19 in Wuhan. In this talk, I will present a mathematical modeling study of the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, incorporating the number of hospital beds in designated and Fangcang hospitals, particularly the number of Fangcang hospitals used to isolate large numbers of confirmed mild cases. I will explain the role of the designated hospitals in saving the lives of severely infected people. I will focus on the function of a large number of Fangcang hospitals and the increasing hospital bed capacity in slowing down and eventually curbing the epidemic in Wuhan. Using our models, we assess the Wuhan city lockdown strategy and find that it was a successful strategy that curbed the epidemic of SARS-CoV-2. Given the current global pandemic situation of COVID-19, this study suggests that, whenever possible, increasing the hospital bed capacity together with the number of healthcare personnel within an affected region is key to curbing the outbreak. In the end, I will present some related dynamical studies of the models if time permits. This talk is based on our CDM team's paper recently published in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization.
Dr. Huaiping Zhu, Professor and York Research Chair in Applied Mathematics of York University. He is the Director of the Centre of Diseases Modeling (CCDM) and the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS) at York University. His research interests include dynamical systems and Hilbert's 16th problem; bifurcation theory and applications; mathematical ecology and epidemiology; climate change modeling and impact studies, mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases. He develops mathematical models, theory, and methodology of mathematics and tools to inform public health to prevent and control infectious diseases.