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Contact patterns are key parameters in COVID-19 transmission models, such as those stratified by age and geographic patches. Arenas et al. (2020) develop an approach to simulate contact patterns associated with recurrent mobility between patches, due to work, school, and other regular travel. We build upon their approach to integrate empiric age contact patterns (Prem et al., 2021), and estimate per-person daily contacts, stratified by age, patch, and contact type for Ontario. Our approach is responsive to population demographics and changes to individual contact types, such as due to public health interventions.

Jesse is a PhD student (NSERC CGS-D) at the University of Toronto working with Dr Sharmistha Mishra. Jesse completed his BEng and MASc at the University of Guelph in biomedical engineering, focusing on medical image processing, including automated segmentation of brain MRI and analysis of digital histopathology.

Jesse's PhD work uses deterministic compartmental models of HIV transmission applied to Sub-Saharan Africa. His thesis explores how differences in model structure, especially those related to sex work and different levels of risk, can influence projections of epidemic trajectories and intervention effectiveness. Jesse has helped lead/support various modelling projects with Dr. Mishra's Research Group in Mathematical Modelling and Program Science, including studies on: turnover of people in sexual risk groups, sexual mixing patterns among men who have sex with men, estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19, and age / neighbourhood contact patterns within Ontario.

LINKS

GitHub: https://github.com/mishra-lab/age-patch-mobility-mixing

Knight 2021: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.29.21264319

Arenas 2020: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.10.041055

Prem 2021: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009098