Immunity is generated from infection and vaccination, and immunity can effectively wane over time. We have developed mathematical models of immunity generation, from infection and vaccination, at the individual (immunology) and population (epidemiology) levels. The models have been fit to data to determine waning rates of immunity, which can then be used to inform models of seroprevalence in different Canadian jurisdiction. In this presentation, I will review our models and will present estimates of seroprevalence, given COVID-19 vaccination programs ad waning immunity estimates.

Jane Heffernan leads the Modelling Infection and Immunity (MI2) Lab in the Mathematics & Statistics Department and Centre for Disease Modelling (CDM) at York University. The primary goal of MI2 is to uncover key contributors to infectious disease pathogenesis in-host (immunology) and in populations (epidemiology), which provides a critical foundation for optimized health policy. Jane’s research program has received strong support from the National Research Council (NRC), NSERC, MITACS, CIHR, Genome Canada, WHO, and industry and government contracts and partnerships (i.e., Public health Agency of Canada (PHAC), Health Canada, Sanofi Pasteur). Jane currently serves as a co-Director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling (CDM), and she leads national and international research groups in Mathematical Immunology and Immunity Modelling. Recent research recognitions include the CAIMS/PIMS Early Career Award, NSERC Discovery Accelerator supplement, and election to the Royal Society of Canada’s College of New Scholars.

'Analysis of Host Immunological Response of Adenovirus-Based COVID-19 Vaccines' https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/8/861/pdf

'Long-term predictions of humoral immunity after two doses of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex' https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/10/18/2021.10.13.2126...

'Fall 2021 Resurgence and COVID-19 Seroprevalence in Canada Modelling waning and boosting COVID-19 immunity in Canada, A Canadian Immunization Research Network Study August 17, 2021' https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/08/24/2021.08.17.2126...

'Barrier Gesture Relaxation during Vaccination Campaign in France: Modelling Impact of Waning Immunity' https://www.mdpi.com/2673-8112/1/2/41/htm

'Modeling waning and boosting of COVID-19 in Canada with vaccination' https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/05/20/2021.05.18.2125...