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In this presentation modelling objectives of the PHAC modelling group are presented. These encompass, model scenarios to show the high level impact of public health measures; modelling to inform alternative public health measures while lifting restrictions; providing guidance on how best to re-implement closures; provide early warning analysis and forecasting of the epidemic; the impacts of vaccination (when can Canada open up?) and most recently, controlling the delta-driven 4th wave.

Publications and reports are at: https://nccid.ca/covid-19-phac-modelling-group/

Dr. Nick Ogden is a senior research scientist and Director of Public Health Risk Sciences division within the National Microbiology Laboratory of PHAC, normally focusing on assessing risk by study of the ecology, epidemiology and genetic diversity of vectors and zoonotic and vector-borne micro-organisms, assessing impacts of climate change on zoonoses and vector-borne diseases, and developing tools for public health adaptation.He currently leads the COVID-19 modelling and emerging science teams responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.

A UK-trained veterinarian (University of Liverpool, 1983), after 10 years of mixed clinical practice, he completed a doctorate in Lyme disease ecology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford (1996). As a professor at the Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Liverpool, he continued his research into the ecology and epidemiology of tick-borne diseases of public health importance in Europe and to livestock production in Africa. As a post-doctoral fellow in Canada (2002) in disease modelling at the Université de Montréal, he continued research on the ecology of Lyme disease and other zoonoses and climate change as a research scientist at the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). As interim Director of the Environmental Issues Division of PHAC he directed a program on climate change and infectious disease risks, and community adaptation to these risks. Then as Director of the Zoonoses Division he directed programs on national coordination, surveillance and prevention of zoonoses including Lyme disease and West Nile virus.