Retrospective and proactive assessments of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ontario, Canada: Insights from transmission modelling analyses
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed substantial burden globally to public health, society and the economy. The role of mathematical modelling to help inform decision- and policy- making to mitigate the burden has been evident. In this talk, a selection of our team's modelling analyses and activities, focused on the COVID-19 epidemic in Ontario, Canada, will be summarized. These works focused on model-based intervention assessment (e.g., quantification of efficacy of control measures) and proactive assessment (e.g., determining conditions for controllability to avoid a potential future wave of infection). Our team's current research priorities will also be discussed. Finally, a few concluding remarks will be made.
Bio: Zachary McCarthy is a PhD candidate in applied mathematics and member of the Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), both at York University. He is also a member of the Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Task Force. His work is focused on the modelling of respiratory diseases, primarily utilizing transmission dynamics models.