In this talk, I describe a team-based approach to SARS-CoV-2 modelling taken in British Columbia (the BC COVID-19 modelling group), working together to address important science and policy questions over the past year. I then shift to discuss work that colleagues and I have conducted to better understand the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. A major challenge has been to tease apart selection from chance in the spread of mutations within the SARS-CoV-2 genome. I describe compartment models tailored to COVID-19 that allow us to better understand the nature of selection acting on the virus and how selection is predicted to change over time. As more individuals become immune (naturally or by vaccination), selection is shifting from favouring transmission and protracted infectious periods to favouring higher reinfection rates. The talk ends by inviting discussion of the implications of viral evolution for public health policy.

Sarah (Sally) Otto is a Killam University Professor at the University of British Columbia. Otto is known for her theoretical studies investigating how biological systems evolve, with over 200 publications and a book. Dr. Otto was co-founder of the Canadian Society of Ecology and Evolution and has recently served on the Species at Risk Advisory Council to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada. She launched and directs the Liber Ero program, a Canadian-wide post-doctoral program in conservation science. Since February 2020, she has been a team member of the BC COVID-19 modelling group. Awards include a MacArthur Fellowship, a Steacie Fellowship and Steacie Prize, and fellowship in the Royal Society of Canada, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the National Academy of Sciences.

For more information on Sara Otto: https://www.zoology.ubc.ca/~otto

Relevant publications: 'On the evolutionary epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2' https://www.cell.com/current-biology/pdf/S0960-9822(20)30847-2.pdf

'Why new COVID-19 variants are on the rise and spreading around the world' https://theconversation.com/why-new-covid-19-variants-are-on-the-rise-an...